Asking prices are not evidence
Listings tell you what sellers hope for. Registered transactions tell you what buyers paid. Every number we use starts with the second.
A portal search for a three-bedroom townhouse in a Dubai community will show you dozens of prices. Almost none of them are evidence. They are asking prices, set by sellers and agents, often duplicated across listings, and they rarely say how long the property has been on the market.
What we use instead
Registered sales from transaction data, for the same community, building or cluster, over a recent period. Each one is adjusted for size, floor, view, condition and handover status. Asking prices appear in our reports for context only, so you can see the gap, but they never set the number.
Why it matters
- Asking prices in an active market can sit 5% to 10% above what comparable homes actually sell for
- Off-plan launch prices are not resale evidence until units start to trade
- A single high sale can be an outlier; the median of several is a better guide
This is the same discipline behind every Buyer's Numbers Check, every Viability Review and every portfolio study: start from what was paid, and be clear about what is a hope rather than a fact.
We track risks like this for every asset in the portfolios we monitor, alongside quarterly rent guidance and hold or dispose calls.
See the portfolio serviceGeneral commentary, not investment advice or a valuation. Photography is representative of location only.